Documento de Trabajo

Prediciendo el precio del cobre: ¿Más allá del camino aleatorio? (Predicting copper prices: Beyond random walk?)

En este trabajo se compara la capacidad predictiva de mediano plazo (1 a 5 años) de una variada gama de modelos de series cronológicas para el precio del cobre. El criterio de comparación es el error cuadrático medio de predicciones fuera de muestra. Entre los modelos considerados destacan medias móviles, procesos ARIMA, precios futuros, modelos

A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s

Chile and Mexico experienced severe economic crises in the early 1980s. This paper analyzes four possible explanations for why Chile recovered much faster than did Mexico. Comparing data from the two countries allows us to rule out a monetarist explanation, an explanation based on falls in real wages and real exchange rates, and a debt

Un análisis del mercado de cobertura de riesgo en Chile y el mundo (A market analysis of hedging in Chile and worldwide)

Between the 1970`s and the 1980`s, the market of derivatives flourished. Forwards, futures and options began to be regularly traded. According to information gathered by The Bank of International Settlements, between January and April 1998, the value of over-the-counter (OTC) positions outstanding was over US$72 thousand billion, while the value of positions outstanding in organized

Trade Theory and Trade Facts

This paper quantitatively tests the «new trade theory» based on product differen-tiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized coun-tries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition,

Environmental Taxes, Inefficient Subsidies and Income Distribution in Chile: A CGE Framework

Successful economic growth followed by Chile, based on open market and export strategy, is characterised by a high dependence on natural resources, and by polluting production and consumption patterns. There is an increasing concern about the need to make potentially significant trade-offs between economic growth and environmental improvements. Additionally, policy-makers have been reluctant to impose

Energy Prices in the Presence of Plant Indivisibilities

In several countries (Chile, Bolivia, Argentina and Peru, among others), power plants are dispatched according to merit order, i.e., based on the marginal operating costs of the plants. In this scheme, the plant with the highest marginal cost sets the spot price at which firms trade the energy requires to fulfill their contracts. The model

A Non-parametric Approach to Model the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Chile

Numerous studies have resorted to parametric models to infer the shape of the term structure of interest rates. Recently, however, it has been shown that non-parametric techniques may be more adequate. This is an empirical study for Chile between December 1992 and April 1998. Monte Carlo simulations, based upon a non-parametric one-factor model, suggest that

¿Qué tan probable es una nueva crisis eléctrica? (How probable is a new electricity crisis?)

Se ha dicho repetidamente que el abastecimiento eléctrico durante los próximos dos años será precario. En este trabajo construimos tres indicadores que permiten cuantificar el riesgo de déficit: (a) la probabilidad con que ocurrirá un déficit durante cada mes de los próximos dos años hidrológicos; (b) simulaciones que pronostican el déficit mes a mes si

La Competitividad de las Exportaciones Chinas en los Mercados de Estados Unidos y Japón (Competitiveness of Chinese Exports in the US and Japanese Markets)

En este artículo se examinan los patrones de similitud y competencia entre las canastasexportadoras china con países asiáticos y latinoamericanos. Luego, se utiliza un modelogravitacional centrípeto para analizar los factores determinantes del incremento relativo de las participaciones de las exportaciones chinas en los mercados de EE.UU. y Japón. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que China se

Regulación por empresa eficiente: ¿quién es realmente usted? (Regulation by Efficient Standard)

Este trabajo estudia los fundamentos de la regulación por empresa eficiente y las fórmulas que se usan para fijar los precios de sanitarias, distribuidoras eléctricas y empresas dominantes de teléfonos. Mostramos que implica tarificar a costo medio de largo plazo, lo óptimo cuando la empresa se debe autofinanciar; esto no ocurre con la regulación por

Profit Sharing Reconsidered: Efficiency Wages and Renegotiation Costs

Weitzman (1983, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1987) strongly advocated policy measures tointroduce profit sharing. His recommendations consisted of tax deductions on incomes derived from a share on profits. The basis for these incentives is the association of profit sharing and two sorts of externalities. First, if the economy is characterised by short run wage rigidity,

A Liquidity Premium Puzzle?: Evidence from Chile

From the early 1980.s until the late 1990.s the term structure of interest rates in Chile was usually downward sloping, particularly for long maturities. Although this fact was common knowledge, no one attempted to explain formally the reason why of this phenomenon. We postulate that the explanation is behind liquidity premium of the term structure