Documento de Trabajo

Trade Liberalization, Development and Government Policy in Chile

This article evaluates the current stance of Chile’s trade policy, and the threats to continued. Topics covered are protectionism (tariff and non-tariff) in Chile and its export markets, the evolution of exports and a critique of dirigiste policies that claim that Chile is facing limits to an export orientation that is based on unprocessed natural

Beneficios y Costos de la Globalización: Perspectiva de un País Pequeño (Chile) (Benefits and costs of globalization: perspectives from a small country (Chile))

La globalización implica para todos los países, especialmente los latinoamericanos, grandes oportunidades; pero al mismo tiempo, los desafíos no son menores. Efectivamente, existen costos de ajuste en la incorporación de un país a la economía mundial, pero, los beneficios superan notoriamente a los costos. El foco de las políticas de un país que se integra

El cobre y la estrategia fiscal óptima para Chile (Copper and the optimal state strategy for Chile)

Este trabajo analiza la estrategia fiscal óptima para Chile, determinando el gasto total y fiscal de la economía, así como de la carga tributaria considerando (i) el problema de distribución intergeneracional de los recursos asociados al cobre; (ii) que los ingresos del cobre son volátiles, transitorios y afectan al resto de la economía; y (iii)

Transportation in Developing Countries: Greenhouse Gas Scenarios for Chile

Chile is a lightly populated country of 15 million that has undergone large economic transformations. Over the past 25 years, the economy has evolved from a slow-growing state-directed economy into a fast growing, market-oriented economy. Its South American neighbors are imitating this transformation. The changes have been especially great in the transport sector, with the

Prediciendo el precio del cobre: ¿Más allá del camino aleatorio? (Predicting copper prices: Beyond random walk?)

En este trabajo se compara la capacidad predictiva de mediano plazo (1 a 5 años) de una variada gama de modelos de series cronológicas para el precio del cobre. El criterio de comparación es el error cuadrático medio de predicciones fuera de muestra. Entre los modelos considerados destacan medias móviles, procesos ARIMA, precios futuros, modelos

A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s

Chile and Mexico experienced severe economic crises in the early 1980s. This paper analyzes four possible explanations for why Chile recovered much faster than did Mexico. Comparing data from the two countries allows us to rule out a monetarist explanation, an explanation based on falls in real wages and real exchange rates, and a debt

Un análisis del mercado de cobertura de riesgo en Chile y el mundo (A market analysis of hedging in Chile and worldwide)

Between the 1970`s and the 1980`s, the market of derivatives flourished. Forwards, futures and options began to be regularly traded. According to information gathered by The Bank of International Settlements, between January and April 1998, the value of over-the-counter (OTC) positions outstanding was over US$72 thousand billion, while the value of positions outstanding in organized

Trade Theory and Trade Facts

This paper quantitatively tests the «new trade theory» based on product differen-tiation, increasing returns, and imperfect competition. We employ a standard model, which allows both changes in the distribution of income among industrialized coun-tries, emphasized by Helpman and Krugman (1985), and nonhomothetic preferences, emphasized by Markusen (1986), to effect trade directions and volumes. In addition,

Environmental Taxes, Inefficient Subsidies and Income Distribution in Chile: A CGE Framework

Successful economic growth followed by Chile, based on open market and export strategy, is characterised by a high dependence on natural resources, and by polluting production and consumption patterns. There is an increasing concern about the need to make potentially significant trade-offs between economic growth and environmental improvements. Additionally, policy-makers have been reluctant to impose

Energy Prices in the Presence of Plant Indivisibilities

In several countries (Chile, Bolivia, Argentina and Peru, among others), power plants are dispatched according to merit order, i.e., based on the marginal operating costs of the plants. In this scheme, the plant with the highest marginal cost sets the spot price at which firms trade the energy requires to fulfill their contracts. The model

A Non-parametric Approach to Model the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The Case of Chile

Numerous studies have resorted to parametric models to infer the shape of the term structure of interest rates. Recently, however, it has been shown that non-parametric techniques may be more adequate. This is an empirical study for Chile between December 1992 and April 1998. Monte Carlo simulations, based upon a non-parametric one-factor model, suggest that

¿Qué tan probable es una nueva crisis eléctrica? (How probable is a new electricity crisis?)

Se ha dicho repetidamente que el abastecimiento eléctrico durante los próximos dos años será precario. En este trabajo construimos tres indicadores que permiten cuantificar el riesgo de déficit: (a) la probabilidad con que ocurrirá un déficit durante cada mes de los próximos dos años hidrológicos; (b) simulaciones que pronostican el déficit mes a mes si