Documento de Trabajo

Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods

In this article, we forecast crude oil and natural gas spot prices at a daily frequency based on two classification techniques: artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark, we utilize an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) specification. We evaluate out-of-sample forecast based on encompassing tests and mean-squared prediction error (MSPE).

Micro Efficiency and Aggregate Growth in Chile

Using plant-level data on Chilean manufacturing firms for the 1980-2001 period, we estimate and characterize disaggregate total factor productivity. We use these estimates to study the microeconomic sources of aggregate efficiency, a fundamental part of aggregate growth. By decomposing productivity dynamics into production reallocation and within plant efficiency changes, we find that reallocation accounted for

Copula-based measures of dependence structure in assets returns

Copula modeling has become an increasingly popular tool in finance to model assets returns dependency. In essence, copulas enable us to extract the dependence structure from the joint distribution function of a set of random variables and, at the same time, to separate the dependence structure from the univariate marginal behavior. In this study, based

Asimetrías en la Respuesta de los Precios de la Gasolina en Chile

Un Análisis Econométrico del Consumo Mundial de Celulosa

En este trabajo se especifica y estima un modelo econométrico para el consumo de celulosa a nivel mundial y desagregado según los principales países consumidores. El modelo utilizado corresponde a uno de demanda derivada para una firma productora de papel representativa que demandará celulosa como un insumo más para su producción. Esta demanda es posteriormente

The Old and the New Reform of Chile’s Power Industry

Chile’s regulatory framework introduced in 1981 remained unchanged for more than 20 years. The reform had a positive effect but several warning signals appeared by the end of the 90s indicating the need to introduce changes. The most important problems were the lack of competition in the generation segment and the reluctance to expand capacity.

Socioeconomic status or noise? Tradeoffs in the generation of school quality information

This paper calculates a time series of simple, standard measures of schools’ relative performance. These are drawn from a 1997-2004 panel of Chilean schools, using individual-level information on test scores and student characteristics for each year. The results suggest there is a stark tradeoff in the extent to which rankings generated using these measures: i)

Cooperation and Network Formation

The present paper proposes a simple model for studying the interplay between self-enforcing cooperation and network formation. In particular, the model provides an answer to the ancient question of how cooperative behavior emerges in different communities and how the possibility of behaving cooperatively shapes the social structure of a community. In a sense, I provide

Patrones de Desarrollo Urbano: ¿Es Santiago Anómalo?

La evidencia internacional muestra que las políticas de desarrollo urbano tienen efectos significativos en el bienestar de los individuos. Pese a ello, en Chile estas políticas han sido generalmente diseñadas e implementadas de acuerdo a criterios arbitrarios y omitiendo evidencia empírica relevante. Su evaluación exige conocer las regularidades que caracterizan al desarrollo urbano. Estos hechos,

The International CAPM and a wavelet-based decomposition of Value at Risk

In this article, we formulate a time-scale decomposition of an international version of the CAPM that accounts for both market and exchange-rate risk. In addition, we derive an analytical formula for time-scale value at risk and marginal value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio. We apply our methodology to stock indices of seven emerging economies

Do Regional Integration Agreements Increase Business-Cycle Convergence? Evidence from Apec and Nafta

Using monthly industrial sector data from January 1971 to March 2004, we test for business cycles convergence among the major APEC members: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, USA, and Canada. In addition, we examine the synchronization of business cycles among Australia, Japan, and South Korea, based on the quarterly data for the 1957-2003 period, as

A Cge Model for Environmental and Trade Policy Analysis in Chile: Case Study for Fuel Tax Increases

Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are a powerful economic tool for multidimensional/multi-sectoral analysis. They improve traditional input-output analysis generating quantities and prices endogenously and reflecting market incentives. They complement partial equilibrium analysis with a broader scope of analysis and the quantification of indirect and often non-intuitive effects. Environmental applications of CGE models include trade and