Exchange rate-based stabilizations in chronic-inflation countries have often been characterized by an initial consumption boom (which is most evident in the behavior of durable goods) followed by a later contraction. This paper provides an explanation for such a boom-recession cycle based on the timing of purchases of durable goods. The initial fall in inflation results in a wealth effect wich induces many consumers to bring forward their consumption boom. Since most consumers replenish their stock of durable goods at the beginning of the program, a later slowdown follows.

José De Gregorio

Pablo E. Guidotti

Carlos A. Végh