Seminario CEA-MIPP - MIERCOLES 4/9/2024, 12:30 HRS - Sala Consejo (401) Beauchef 851 - "Third-party intervention in sequential Wars of Attrition with incomplete information" - Martin Castillo (Harris School Chicago)

Tema: Third-party intervention in sequential Wars of Attrition with incomplete information

Presenta: Martin Castillo (Harris School Chicago)

Vast literature in political science and political economy either argues or assumes that the state’s primary role is to provide security. I propose a dynamic model to study the strategic interaction of a state and violent non-state groups that violently compete over rents and when there is uncertainty about the strength of each group. In the model, non-state groups fight sequential Wars of Attrition with replacement under asymmetric information. The violent competition between groups generates a negative externality for the state; the state wants to minimize competition and can temporarily weaken groups’ military capabilities by targeting them. The analysis shows that public information about the strength of the last winner of a conflict mediates a trade-off between the likelihood and the intensity of violence when a new group emerges as a challenger; that even if targeting groups is costless for the state, targeting both groups is not always the optimal violence-reducing policy, when the state is weak its optimal policy is to take sides in favor of the incumbent group; and that these differences between weak and strong states will shape the dynamics of reputation building of violent non-state groups.

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